Kuwait’s approval of a defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan prompted debate among Gulf commentators over its strategic significance. While support for closer military cooperation was widespread, disagreement centered on whether the agreement should remain a limited defense arrangement or signal a broader shift in the Gulf’s regional security strategy.

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Geopolitics

• “Trump pegs Saudi nuclear deal to Israel talks.” Semafor, July 23, 2026.

“Riyadh has long pegged normalization with Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state, which Israel’s government opposes. But Iran’s attacks across the Middle East have placed the Gulf and Israel on the same side of the conflict, which could at least “make normalization easier,” Semafor’s Gulf editor wrote.”

Go Deeper: “Trump Adds New Israel Hurdle to Saudi Nuclear Deal.” WSJ, July 23, 2026.

• “Yemen’s Houthis to Impose Maritime Blockade on Saudi Arabia.” Bloomberg, July 20, 2026.

“The kingdom diverted its oil supplies to key Red Sea port of Yanbu following the outbreak of the war and Iran’s effective closure of Hormuz. Those exports, which rose to a record 4.19 million barrels a day last month, have helped limit the disruption to global supplies, but the route remains fragile as it exposes tankers to the Houthi militants who have previously attacked ships in the Red Sea.”

Go Deeper: “The Houthis just announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia. What does it mean for the global economy?” Atlantic Council, July 20, 2026.

• “Saudi, UAE officials use social media to signal unity after months of tension.” Reuters, July 22, 2026.

“The two Gulf heavyweights have seen their ​interests diverge for years on everything from oil quotas to geopolitics, with the disagreements coming into the open late last year over ​their support for opposing sides in the war in Yemen.”

Go Deeper: “Saudi Arabia, UAE Officials Signal Unity After Months of Tensions.” Bloomberg, July 22, 2026.

• “Brent Hits $100 Again as Houthi Attacks Threaten Further Supply Squeeze.” WSJ, July 23, 2026.

“The global oil benchmark soared 7.2% to $100.82 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since the end of May, while West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 5.8% to $91.83 a barrel. The contracts have gained more than 19% and 16%, respectively, this week.”

Go Deeper: “Oil Prices Waver as Gulf Ship Traffic Falls to Lowest Level in Months.” New York Times, July 24, 2026.

• “US approves $41bn of arms sales to GCC in six months.” AGBI, July 24, 2026.

“Agreements announced by the State Department from January until the end of June reached $41 billion, compared with $9 billion for all of last year. The total is higher still when expansions to previously announced deals are included.”

Go Deeper: “The Gulf States Need Better Defense Integration, Not More Weapons.” Gulf International Forum, Jun 2, 2026.

Market, Economy, and Local News

• “Kuwait Sells $6 Billion of Bonds Despite Iran Strikes.” Bloomberg, July 22, 2026.

“Investor orders for the Gulf Arab country’s three-part dollar deal reached about $14.8 billion at final terms, allowing it to tighten spreads by 25 basis points across all tranches from the initial price talk, according to a person familiar with the matter.”

Go Deeper: “Kuwait: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report.” IMF, Feb 24, 2026.

• “UAE Doubles Down on $1.4 Trillion US Pledge, Faults EU on Trade.” Bloomberg, July 23, 2026.

“The United Arab Emirates says it’s ahead of schedule with a plan to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over the next decade, and criticized the European Union for stalling trade talks.”

Go Deeper: “Staff warned of major security risks from giving UAE new tech access. The White House went ahead anyway.” Politico, July 22, 2026.

• “Buyers to press Qatar, UAE for cheaper, more flexible LNG deals after Hormuz shock.” Reuters, July 23, 2026.

“Qatar’s vast reserves helped the country become the dominant force in the global gas market. It and the neighbouring UAE, where production volumes are ​increasing, account for around one-fifth of global LNG export capacity - all of which relies on the strait to reach global ⁠markets.”

Go Deeper: “Price volatility: A double-edged sword for the LNG industry.” IEEFA, July 21, 2026.

• “Abu Dhabi National Oil Company invests in $6.2B domestic gas project,” Semafor, July 21, 2026.

“The project is expected to produce more than 600 million cubic feet of gas a day from 2030, equivalent to almost 10% of the UAE’s current daily consumption.”

Go Deeper: “Abu Dhabi’s national oil company is committing $6.2 billion to a massive offshore gas field.” Quartz, July 21, 2026.

• “DP World plans two ports in booming Fujairah.” July 23, 2026.

“The war has been a windfall for Fujairah, which has favorable access to the Indian Ocean outside Gulf waters — the UAE’s six other emirates largely sit within the Strait of Hormuz. An overground logistics network will link DP World’s flagship terminal in Dubai with the new ports in Fujairah, the company said, emphasizing the emirate’s growing importance as a maritime gateway.”

Go Deeper: “Dubai’s DP World to Build Two New Terminals on U.A.E. East Coast, Bypassing Hormuz.” WSJ, July 23, 2026.

• “Blackstone plans Dubai office as it eyes further Gulf expansion, sources say.” Reuters, July 24, 2026.

“Since the beginning of the conflict, Blackstone has announced a deal with ​Dubai’s DAE for a joint ​aircraft leasing investment programme ⁠and has invested $250 million in a UAE-based payments and data intelligence technology platform.”

Go Deeper: “Lessons from business leaders in Dubai: How to continue operating during a conflict.” World Economic Forum, May 1, 2026.

• “Iran war costs squeeze Gulf’s protein boom.” Semafor, July 24, 2026.

“Gulf consumers have long embraced the global protein craze, but the Iran conflict is squeezing the margins of food companies seeking to profit from the trend. Riyadh-based National Agricultural Development Co., better known for its dairy brand Nadec, doubled sales in its protein segment, helping lift second-quarter revenue by 5.5%. But profit for the period fell 44% as higher feed and shipping costs erased those gains.”

• “King Salman appoints new ministers, reshuffles cabinet.” Al Arabiya, July 11, 2026.

“King Salman appointed Ihsan bin Abbas bin Hamza Bafaqih Secretary of Jeddah Governorate, Abdullah al-Dahim as Deputy Governor of the Saudi Central Bank for Executive Affairs, and Talal al-Hamoud as Deputy Governor of the Saudi Central Bank for Technical Affairs.”

Go Deeper: “Saudi Arabia adds industry, mineral resources portfolio to Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz’s role.” Reuters, July 11, 2026.

• “Middle East Green Initiative targets 35.4 billion trees, 99.4 million hectares of land restoration.” Saudi Gazette, July 23, 2026.

“Member states of the Middle East Green Initiative aim to plant 35.4 billion trees and rehabilitate 99.4 million hectares of degraded land, the initiative’s Executive Committee said during its 20th meeting.”

Go Deeper: Adel M. Ghanem, Yosef A. Alamri “The impact of the green Middle East initiative on sustainable development in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia” Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023.

• “DEWA expands power grid with $2.7bln transmission investment.” Zawya, July 23, 2026.

“Announcing this, Managing Director and CEO Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer said Dewa commissioned eight 132-kilovolt (kV) transmission substations in the first half of 2026 with a combined conversion capacity of 1,200 megavolt-amperes (MVA). The projects included 20 km of transmission cables, worth AED970 million.”

Go Deeper: “Gulf Energy Transition Through Renewable Energy Development.” Baker Institute, February 26, 2026.

• “Malaysia May Again Host Formula One Racing With Bahrain in Doubt.” Bloomberg, July 24, 2026.

“The Bahrain Grand Prix was supposed to be held in April this year, but the contest was one of two Middle East races indefinitely postponed due to the the ongoing war between the US and Iran. Bahrain has sought to reschedule the race for early October, ESPN reported on Thursday, citing unidentified sources, but uncertainty persists due to fresh escalation of the conflict this month.”

• “Kuwaitis cut down AC use in peak summer to save electricity as Iran hits power grid.” Khaleej Times, July 21, 2026.

“Kuwaiti authorities have called on the public to consume less energy so that they can maintain round-the-clock electricity as the grid comes under Iranian attack. Nasser Al Dhafiri, a civil servant in his forties, described “immense psychological pressure” on ordinary people as the attacks sparked fears of electricity outages.”

• Book: Simons, Gregory John, Khaled Al-Kassimi, and Kleanthis Kyriakidis, eds. “Guardians of the Gulf: Navigating Security Challenges.” June 2026, Springer Nature Switzerland.

• Research: “Gender, race and migrant labour: experiences of African women in Saudi Arabia.” Munuhe Maina, Third World Quarterly, July 2, 2026.

• Research: “The energy transition of the United Arab Emirates 2008–2023: From Masdar City to COP28.” Małgorzata Kamola-Cieślik, Fuad Jomma and Dana Mohammed Danish Aladdin Sajadi, Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, July 3, 2026.

• Research: “Governing artificial intelligence in the financial sector: regulatory challenges and policy implications in Saudi Arabia.” Muez Osman, AI and Ethics, July 6, 2026.

• Research: “Legal grounds for imposing liability on insider trading activities occurring in the Saudi Stock market.” Abdullah Faraj Al Dossari, Cogent Social Sciences, July 7, 2026.

• Research: “Decentralised nutritional authority: how food-delivery platforms reshape household provisioning in Qatar.” Asma H. Malkawi and Maryam Melhim, British Food Journal, July 7, 2026.

• Analysis: “The Geopolitics of Reviving the Hejaz Railway.” Giorgio Cafiero, AGSI, July 1, 2026.

• Analysis: “The Omani Route Toward a New Maritime Security Order.” Khalid Al-Jaber, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, July 1, 2026.

• Analysis: “In the Middle East and North Africa, America and China Converge More Than They Diverge.” Amr Hamzawy and Kathryn Selfe, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 1, 2026.

• Analysis: “Syria Is the Answer.” William Roebuck, AGSI, July 2, 2026.

• Analysis: “Trump’s Family Business Deals Risk Further Undermining the Credibility of US Middle East Policy.” Brian Katulis, Middle East Institute, July 2, 2026.

• Analysis: “All About Those Ports.” Robert Mogielnicki, AGSI, July 6, 2026.

• Analysis: “After the Hormuz Crisis, No Return to the Status Quo.” Kate Dourian, AGSI, July 7, 2026.

• Analysis: “Pakistan and Qatar’s Emergence as Key Mediators in Iran-U.S. Diplomacy.” Giorgio Cafiero, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, July 7, 2026.

• Analysis: “Saudi Arabia Weathers the Iran War Thanks to Investments in ‘Economic Resiliency.’” Tim Callen, AGSI, July 8, 2026.

• Analysis: “How the Future of Hormuz Is Testing Oman’s Balancing Act.” Paul Wallace, Bloomberg, July 9, 2026.

• Analysis: “The Hormuz Blockade Experience Is Forcing Food Security Adaptation.” Logan Cochrane, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, July 9, 2026.

• Analysis: “Iran Uses Diplomacy and Coercion to Perpetuate Control of the Strait of Hormuz.” Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco, Stimson Center, July 9, 2026.

• Analysis: “Why Oil Was Never in Danger of Reaching $200 a Barrel.” Francesca Washtell, AGBI, July 10, 2026.

• Interview: “Jassim Al-Mutawa and the Souk Al-Manakh Era.” The Black Box, July 10, 2026.

• Webinar: “How Gulf Economies Withstood the Hormuz Crisis.” ORF, July 3, 2026.

• Podcast: “What Our Airlines Are Missing—and What Riyadh Air Brings.” Socrates Podcast, July 8, 2026.

• Podcast: “Do the Gulf States Need a New Playbook?” Middle East Focus, Jul 2, 2026.

The Houthis’ renewed threats against Saudi Arabia and their declared willingness to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait have revived an old Gulf question: who can realistically restore stability in Yemen? While Gulf commentators broadly agree that the Houthis represent a serious security challenge and that Iranian influence has expanded through the movement, they differ sharply on the most effective response. Some argue that backing Yemen’s internationally recognized government has failed and that Gulf states—particularly Saudi Arabia—should instead deepen their support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Others insist that abandoning the legitimate state would only deepen Yemen’s fragmentation and strengthen Iran’s long-term position. A third group places Yemen within a much broader geopolitical struggle, arguing that Bab al-Mandab can no longer be understood separately from Hormuz or the wider competition over global maritime routes.

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Geopolitics

• “Iran attacks Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait after deadly U.S. strikes.” CNBC, July 9, 2026.

“Iran says it has attacked U.S. forces in Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait after the U.S. bombed Iranian cities for a second consecutive night. CNBC’s Emma Graham reports from Abu Dhabi.”

Go Deeper: “Iran Update Special Report, July 9, 2026.” ISW, July 9, 2026.

• “Canada’s Carney defends his visit to Saudi Arabia and slams criticism from afar.” AP, July 9, 2026.

“Carney has been seeking to expand his country’s economic ties beyond its heavy reliance on the United States, and diversify trade and attract investments against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.”

Go Deeper: “Canada wants broader Saudi ties, won’t lecture from ‘afar’: Carney.” Al-Monitor, July 9, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia considers expansion of oil pipeline to Red Sea, sources say.” Reuters, July 7, 2026.

“The kingdom is in preliminary talks with ⁠some of its neighbours about the potential expansion of the pipeline’s capacity by up to 2 million bpd, the sources said..”

“It was unclear if Aramco’s ​planned capacity increase would involve upgrades to existing infrastructure or construction of a new pipeline. One of the sources said the increase would include a ​smaller second pipe for oil products.”

Go Deeper: “New Middle East corridors are about more than just bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.” Allison Minor, Atlantic Council, July 6, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia explores IMEC route through Syria, sidestepping Israel, sources tell ‘Post’.” The Jerusalem Post, July 9, 2026.

“The initiative envisioned a network of railways, ports, and shipping lanes, connecting India to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Greece. It would provide a faster alternative to traditional maritime routes while strengthening economic integration across the region.”

Go Deeper: “Saudi Arabia,Turkey: Battle Over IMEC,What It Means for Haifa, Piraeus and Eilat.” The Times of Israel, June 13, 2026.

• “Saudis Slash Main Oil Price to Rare Discount as Market Dives.” Bloomberg, July 6, 2026.

“State producer Saudi Aramco will lower Arab Light oil for next month by $11 a barrel to $1.50 below the regional benchmark, according to a price list published Monday. The last two times it sold the grade at a discount were during price wars in 2020 and 2015, while it marks the largest monthly reduction in official selling prices since at least 2000.”

Go Deeper: “Saudi oil price cut unlikely to convince sated Asia buyers, traders say.” Reuters, July 7, 2026.

• “UAE president arrives in Kuwait for talks with emir.” Arab News, July 09, 2026.

“It affirmed the UAE’s full support for the two Gulf Cooperation Council member countries and all measures aimed at safeguarding their security and stability, the Emirates News Agency reported.”

Go Deeper: “The UAE Woos Kuwait… In Confrontation with Saudi Arabia?” Al Hurra, Feb 3, 2026.

Economy, Markets and Domestics

• “Saudi Arabia, Canada launch investment pact talks, deepen mining partnership.” Saudi Gazette, July 10, 2026.

“The two countries also pledged to deepen cooperation in defense, cybersecurity, counterterrorism and combating transnational organized crime, while expanding collaboration in healthcare, biotechnology, digital health, pharmaceuticals, medical technologies, research and workforce development.”

Go Deeper: “Carney’s Saudi Arabia trip a ‘high-water mark’ for relations: Business leader.” Kyle Duggan, Canada National Observer, July 9, 2026

• “Canada tells UAE it is not ready for its C$70bn investment.” Financial Times, July 7, 2026.

“The reason was a lack of projects at a stage where they could deploy the money. Former Quebec premier Jean Charest..”

Go Deeper: “Canada tells UAE it has no projects ready for billions in pledged investment - report.” I24 News, July 7, 2026.

• “Qatar Pauses Push to Ramp Up LNG After Hormuz Tanker Attack.” Bloomberg, July 9, 2026.

“The pause is one of the most high-profile fallouts of the heightened tensions this week with attacks on a number of ships near Hormuz and the US striking Iran for two consecutive days. President Donald Trump on Wednesday even raised the prospect of a return to all-out war, a worst-case scenario for energy producers in the region who were gradually recovering from the impact of the conflict.”

Go Deeper: “Qatar LNG under constraint: capacity loss and export dislocation.” Irina Mironova, Cedigaz, April 23, 2026.

• “UAE tops Arab region in FDI inflows in 2025 with $48.2 billion.” Arab News, July 08, 2026.

“According to UNCTAD estimates cited in Dhaman’s annual report, FDI inflows to Arab countries fell 10 percent to US$119.3 billion in 2025. More than 80 percent of total inflows were concentrated in three Arab countries, while the region’s share of global FDI declined to 7.3 percent and its share of FDI to developing economies fell to 13.3 percent.”

Go Deeper: “UAE Foreign Direct Investment, report 2025.” [UAE] Ministry of Investment, 2025. [PDF].

• “Businesses report blocked payments from Saudi Arabia to the UAE, raising fears of worsening ties.” Middle East Eye, July 08, 2026.

“Several sources told the Financial Times that payments from Saudi banks to UAE-based accounts belonging to companies and individuals in Dubai had been returned or held up since May, often without explanation.”

Go Deeper: “Saudi-UAE tensions hit money flows.” Yahoo, July 8, 2026.

• “Al-Hogail launches SR1.67 billion municipal, housing projects in Al-Baha.” Saudi Gazette, July 10, 2026.

“Municipal projects included completed developments worth SR464 million and new projects valued at SR873.5 million, covering roads, sidewalks, street lighting, flood mitigation, parks, public facilities and other infrastructure aimed at improving services for residents and visitors.”

Go Deeper: “Saudi Arabia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2026.” Global Property Guide, Mar 1, 2026.

• “Abu Dhabi’s e& exits Vodafone investment in $5.95bln deal.” Zawya, July 10, 2026.

“The sale covers 3.94 billion Vodafone shares at 112.5 GB pence ($1.51) per share, comprising about 110.5 pence in cash and a 2.02 pence FY26 dividend, payable on July 30, 2026..”

“The shares will initially be transferred through off-market block trades to three financial institutions who will hold them until Vega completes the regulatory requirements.”

• “United Solar completes $1.6bln funding for Oman polysilicon plant with IFC investment.” Zawya, July 6, 2026.

“In a separate statement that month, United Solar had announced that it secured $480 million in term debt financing from IFC and partner banks and more than $400 million in term debt and working capital facilities from local commercial banks led by Sohar International for the project.”

Go Deeper: “The Gulf could turn extreme heat to its advantage.” AGBI, July 8, 2026.

• “Abu Dhabi’s ADNEC reports record $2.5 bln economic contribution in 2025.” Zawya, July 6, 2026.

“In 2025, ADNEC Group generated AED9.2 billion in economic impact, an 8% increase from AED8.5 billion in 2024. Through its business and leisure tourism activities, the group generated 2.17 million hotel room nights, reflecting its growing role in driving economic growth and supporting the UAE’s strategic objective of building a diversified, knowledge‑based economy.”

• “Kuwait renewable energy firm plans equity raise to expand across MENA.” Zawya, July 8, 2026.

“AEP had recently secured several competitive solar projects in Kuwait and Oman, further validating the strength of its pipeline, commercial competitiveness, and ability to convert opportunities into awarded projects.”

• “Exclusive / Microsoft deepens AI ties with UAE to automate government work.” Semafor, July 8, 2026.

“Microsoft’s ties to the emirates are already significant: It has committed $15.2 billion to the country by 2030 and taken a stake in G42. Microsoft President Brad Smith previously told Semafor the company has broad ambitions for the UAE, seeing it as a gateway for computing power and data storage across the wider region.”

Go Deeper: “Abu Dhabi Ruler’s Family Office Is a Global Dealmaking Force.” Bloomberg, July 6, 2026.

• “ADNOC spends $1B on gas stations in South Africa.” Semafor, July 7, 2026.

“The Abu Dhabi state oil company’s retail arm, ADNOC Distribution, has bought Shell’s downstream business in South Africa for $1 billion, adding to a string of foreign acquisitions in recent months. The deal hands ADNOC 580 gas stations and a 10% market share in Africa’s largest economy.”

• “Qatar: Mortgage transactions reach $3.56bln in Q1.” Zawya, July 10, 2026.

“The volume of mortgage transactions achieved during Q1 2025 reached 434 transactions, with a total amount of QR10.037bn where Doha Municipality registered the highest number of mortgage transactions with 164 equivalent to 37.8 percent, followed by Al Rayyan Municipality with 117 transactions equivalent to 27 percent, then Al Daayen Municipality with 50 transactions equivalent to 11.5 percent of the total number of mortgaged properties.”

• “Acwa Power sets new dividend policy until 2030.” AGBI, July 8, 2026.

“The board also recommended a dividend payment of SAR353 million ($96 million), or SAR0.46 per share, for 2025 subject to shareholders’ approval.”

“Acwa Power reported a 19 percent year-on-year drop in net profit to SAR345 million in the first quarter of 2026 despite a 3 percent annual increase in revenue to SAR2 billion.”

• “Kuwait Investment Company’s German subsidiary secures €23mln loan.” Zawya, July 8, 2026.

“Wisaly is a real estate entity operated by the publicly listed KIC, one of Kuwait’s oldest investment firms that is 62.04% owned by the country’s wealth fund, the Kuwait Investment Authority, according to LSEG data.”

The U.S.–Iran war has reignited one of the Gulf’s most consequential strategic debates: what role will the United States play in the Middle East after the conflict? While the military confrontation ended without fundamentally reshaping the regional balance of power, it exposed growing uncertainty across Gulf capitals regarding Washington’s long-term strategic commitment. The central question is no longer whether the United States can defeat Iran militarily, but whether it intends to remain the Gulf’s primary security guarantor or gradually redefine its regional role. Equally important is whether future understandings between Washington and Tehran could leave Iran with greater geopolitical influence despite its military setbacks. Against this backdrop, Gulf commentators offer sharply different interpretations of America’s future posture, the durability of regional deterrence, and the strategic consequences of the postwar order.

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Today we’re sharing our conversation with Professor John Calabrese. He is an Assistant Professor at the American University in Washington D.C., Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Book Review Editor of The Middle East Journal. His research focuses on Middle Eastern international relations, particularly the evolving political and economic connections between the Middle East and Asia. A specialist in regional and cross-regional dynamics, Professor Calabrese has authored and edited numerous books and scholarly works, including China’s Changing Relations with the Middle East and Revolutionary Horizons: Regional Foreign Policy in Post-Khomeini Iran. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a BA in English and Government from Georgetown University.

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1. During the recent Iran conflict, Gulf states demonstrated an increasing ability to defend themselves against missile and drone attacks, reviving debate about the value and future of the US-Gulf security partnership. From your perspective, has the United States fundamentally changed its approach to the region, or are we witnessing a broader transformation in the international system and the nature of warfare itself? More broadly, why does the American security role in the Gulf appear different today than it did during earlier crises such as the 1990-91 Gulf War?

The debate is often framed as whether the United States is “leaving” the Gulf. The more important shift is that the conditions that once made American primacy function as a security system have eroded.

During the 1980s and 1990s, Gulf security was defined by a relatively clear set of priorities: deterring state aggression, securing energy flows, and ensuring freedom of navigation. These were domains in which overwhelming US conventional superiority translated directly into regional order.

Today, the threat environment sits in a different space. Drones, precision missiles, cyberattacks, financial disruption, and infrastructure sabotage operate in the gray zone between war and peace. They are harder to attribute, deter, and neutralize through conventional force alone. As a result, US military dominance remains necessary but no longer sufficient as an organizing principle of regional security.

This is reflected in the Iran war, where US forces could not fully prevent or unilaterally deter calibrated Iranian retaliation at the margins of escalation. More broadly, this points to a convergence of two dynamics. First, US strategy has shifted toward Indo-Pacific priorities, post-Afghanistan wariness of open-ended deployments, and domestic pressure to reduce forward presence. Second, the character of warfare has changed in ways that reduce the marginal decisiveness of external conventional superiority.

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• “US envoys Witkoff and Kushner land in Qatar for fresh Iran war talks.” Euro News, June 30, 2026.

“Iran on Monday separately announced it will send delegations to Qatar this week, although Tehran insisted it has not agreed to meet with the US “at any level” after attacks across the Persian Gulf over the weekend challenged the ongoing talks.”

Go Deeper: “How Qatar’s quiet diplomacy helped pave the way for the US-Iran deal.” The Arab World, June 16, 2026.

• “A Dispute Over Opening Hormuz Drives a Wedge Into U.S.-Saudi Relations.” WSJ, June 30, 2026.

“Saudi officials were displeased and interpreted Rubio’s decision not to visit Riyadh as a calculated snub, people familiar with the kingdom’s thinking said.”

Go Deeper: “A bad peace: the Arab Gulf states and the US–Iran memorandum of understanding.” IISS, June 26, 2026.

• “Iraq, GCC discuss stronger ties as Baghdad pledges closer Gulf cooperation.” Arab News, July 01, 2026.

“During the meeting, Al-Zaidi said his government was committed to deepening ties with GCC countries, describing them as Iraq’s “Arab depth” and stressing the importance of building relations with regional and international partners.”

Go Deeper: “The Geopolitical Imperative of Iraq-GCC Relations.” AGSI, Jun 4, 2026.

• “China, Saudi Arabia should contribute to maintaining regional, world peace, stability: Chinese vice president.” Anadolu, June 30, 2026.

“China is willing to work with Saudi Arabia to deepen political mutual trust, strengthen high-level exchanges, and expand practical cooperation to promote new progress in bilateral relations, he added.”

Go Deeper: “China – Saudi Arabia Bilateral Relations.” Bo Wang, Middle East and Economic Institute, April 1, 2026.

• “Iran and Oman hold first Hormuz talks as US-Iran deal stays on edge.” Euro News, June 29, 2026.

“Yet the Strait of Hormuz remains the decisive leverage in Iran’s hands, while both sides continue to offer different interpretations of the framework deal, exploiting its vague language and apparent loopholes.”

Economics, Business and Market

“Abu Dhabi’s Investing Model Evolves With MGX’s $50 Billion AI Fund.” Bloomberg, June 29, 2026.

“It already counts OpenAI, xAI and infrastructure partnerships with BlackRock and Microsoft among its bets, and is targeting more than $100 billion in assets under management.”

Go Deeper: “The new playbook for AI leadership: The case of the United Arab Emirates.”Trisha Ray, Ryan Pan, and Raul Brens Jr., Atlantic Council, May 7, 2026.

• “Persian Gulf Crude Exports Rebound to 75% of Prewar Levels.” Bloomberg, June 25, 2026.

Those routes prevented exports from collapsing altogether. Saudi Arabia maintained crude shipments to overseas buyers at about 3.75 million barrels a day through March, April and May — roughly 55% of pre-war exports — according to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data. So far this month, shipments have averaged about 4.2 million barrels a day, or 60% of pre-war levels.

Go Deeper: “How the Gulf’s Economy Is Recovering After More Than 100 Days of War.” Wired, July 1, 2026.

• “Saudi Sovereign-Wealth Fund Struggles to Find Winning Investments.” WSJ, June 30, 2026.

“But the Public Investment Fund’s vast portfolio is showing little in terms of returns on its investments, with most of the growth coming from government injections and borrowing, according to its annual report published Tuesday.”

Go Deeper: “The PIF’s 2026-30 Strategy Emerges Amid Heightened Regional Tensions, Uncertainty.” Robert Mogielnicki, AGSI, May 11, 2026.

• “Nigeria Draws First Tranche of $5 Billion Swap With UAE Bank.” Bloomberg, June 26, 2026.

“Africa’s biggest oil producer will provide collateral equivalent to 133.3% of the loan in naira-denominated securities for the transaction. Such deals have been highlighted by the International Monetary Fund and credit assessors including Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings for its inherent risks due to a lack of transparency.”

Go Deeper: “UAE deepens Africa investment push with focus on renewables and logistics.” Vanessa Ghanem, The National, February 14, 2026.

• “Asian LNG Buyers Expect Qatar to Let Force Majeure Lapse in July.” Bloomberg, June 26, 2026

“However, QatarEnergy is setting the stage to rapidly increase production and exports as it brings in empty vessels and prepares equipment at Ras Laffan for restart, while shipping out some cargoes through Hormuz. The country plans to return to normal LNG output within weeks from the undamaged parts of its facility, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani told the Financial Times this week.”

Go Deeper: “Qatar says US-Iran hotline essential to stop rogue actors impeding Hormuz reopening.”

• “Net FDI inflows drop 2.4% to SR23 billion in Q1 2026.” Saudi Gazette, June 30, 2026.

“The authority added that net inflows also fell by 51.9 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, when they reached SR48 billion. Meanwhile, statistical data showed positive growth in total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Saudi economy during the first quarter of 2026, which rose to SR26.6 billion, marking a 2.4 percent increase from SR26 billion recorded in the first quarter of the previous year. However, total inflows declined by 49.9 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, when they stood at SR53.1 billion.”

Go Deeper: “Foreign Direct Investment, Quarter 1 2026.” [Saudi] General Authority For Statistics, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia extends tax penalty waiver until December 2026: Key details revealed.” Gulf Business, June 30, 2026.

“ZATCA said taxpayers seeking to benefit from the initiative must be registered with the authority for tax purposes, submit all required tax returns, and settle the full principal amount of any outstanding tax liabilities.”

• “Saudi Aramco helicopter crash in Ras Tanura kills all 14 on board.” Al Jazzera, June 28, 2026.

“The helicopter belonging to the Saudi Aramco oil company crashed in Ras Tanura at around 6am (03:00 GMT). The dead were all Saudi nationals, reported the SPA state news agency.”

Our guest today is Dr. Courtney Freer. She is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Middle Eastern and South Asian Studies at Emory University and a Senior Nonresident Fellow at the Gulf International Forum. Her research specializes in Gulf politics, political science, international relations, and the relationship between Islam and politics in the contemporary Middle East. Her work focuses primarily on domestic political dynamics, Islamism, state–society relations, parliamentary politics, and political mobilization in the Gulf monarchies. She holds a D.Phil. in Politics from the University of Oxford, an M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies from The George Washington University, and a B.A. in Near Eastern Studies from Princeton University. Dr. Freer is the author of several influential works on Gulf politics, including studies of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Gulf, parliamentary politics in Kuwait, and tribalism, state-building, and national identity across the Gulf states.

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In today’s issue, we shed some light on the public debate around the question of trusting the Iranian regime, both on the short- and long-term. Views from various perspectives are highlighted, and the debate is concluded with selected opinions on other topics.

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Public Debates

Can Iran Be Trusted? Gulf Commentators Debate the Prospects of a New Regional Understanding

Amid preparations for a potential understanding between the United States, Iran, and the Gulf states, Gulf commentators have increasingly focused on a broader strategic question: Can Iran be trusted to uphold a new regional agreement? Reports of parallel Gulf-Iranian discussions, renewed diplomatic outreach, and disagreements surrounding the future of the Strait of Hormuz have generated a lively debate across the Gulf. While one camp argues that Iran’s past conduct leaves little room for confidence without fundamental changes in its behavior, another contends that diplomacy remains the only realistic path toward long-term regional stability.

The debate is best introduced by Saad bin Tiflah, the Kuwaiti former Minister of Information, whose article frames the discussion by outlining the two competing perspectives emerging across the Gulf. Rather than immediately taking sides, Bin Tiflah explains that Gulf societies are divided between those who believe engagement with Iran could create a new environment of stability and those who believe that genuine trust cannot exist without a fundamental change in the behavior of the Iranian regime. As he writes:

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This report draws on everything we covered over those three months, with added analysis to surface the patterns and consequences that only become visible at a distance.

The report is organized in two sections: the first gives an overall analysis of themes that cut across the Gulf countries, and the second zooms in with insights at the country level.

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In this issue, we share our conversation with Professor Şaban Kardaş. He is a Research Professor and Programme Coordinator at the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University. His research focuses on Turkish foreign and domestic policy, Gulf and Middle East security, energy policy, and international relations. He has published extensively on regional security and geopolitical affairs through books, articles, and book chapters, and has contributed commentary to international media. He previously taught at several leading Turkish institutions, including the Diplomacy Academy, Sakarya University, the Police Academy, the Military Academy, and TOBB University of Economics and Technology. Professor Kardaş holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Utah, an MA in International Relations from Middle East Technical University in Ankara, and an MA in European Studies from the Center for European Integration Studies in Bonn, Germany.

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Today, we highlight the public debate around a crucial topic: the US-Iran agreement. We include both optimistic and skeptical voices, and conclude with selected opinions on other topics.

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Beyond the Memorandum: Gulf Commentators Debate the US-Iran Agreement

The signing of the US-Iran Memorandum has generated an intense debate across Gulf commentary. While the agreement halted a costly confrontation and launched a sixty-day negotiating process, commentators remain deeply divided over its implications. For some, the memorandum risks restoring Iranian influence and repeating the mistakes of previous U.S. engagement with Tehran. Others argue that judgment should be postponed until the agreement’s implementation becomes clearer. A third group shifts the discussion away from immediate winners and losers, arguing that the real issues concern Gulf security, the Strait of Hormuz, regional geography, and the narratives surrounding the conflict itself.

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Updates

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The public debate highlighted in this issue is all about the recent Saudi-Turkey railway deal that links Turkey to Saudi Arabia through Syria and Jordan, and could eventually connect to the GCC railway network. After that, we highlight other topics, and lastly share several selected pieces in the Nashra Picks.

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Public Debates

Railway of Integration or Railway of Empire? Gulf Commentators Debate the Saudi-Turkey Corridor

The June 9 signing of a Saudi-Turkish memorandum of understanding on railway cooperation has revived discussion of one of the most ambitious connectivity projects proposed in the modern Middle East. The planned corridor would link Turkey to Saudi Arabia through Syria and Jordan and could eventually connect to the GCC railway network, creating an overland route stretching from the Gulf to Europe. Supporters see the project as a transformative economic corridor capable of reshaping regional trade, strengthening supply chains, and reducing dependence on vulnerable maritime routes. Critics, however, argue that the initiative cannot be separated from its historical roots and warn that the revival of the old Hejaz Railway route may reflect a broader Turkish geopolitical vision rather than a purely economic undertaking.

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Updates

• “Qatar-born residents, children of Qatari mothers can now apply for National Service.” Khaleej Times, June 9, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign rail cooperation agreement.” Arab News, June 09, 2026.

• “Bahrain Bourse listed companies post 17.6% Q1 profit rise.” Zawya, June 8, 2026.

• “Iran targets US bases in Jordan and the Gulf after Trump orders strikes near Hormuz.” Reuters, June 10, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia, Yemen sign $150 million petroleum supply deal to support energy sector, power plants.” Saude Gazette, June 9, 2026.

• “Saudi economy grows 3% in Q1 2026 as non-oil activities lead expansion.” Saudi Gazette, June 9, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia to host entrepreneurship week from June 14.” Arab News, June 09, 2026.

• “Exclusive: Emirates to offer incentives, safety assurances as Iran war hits travel.” Reuters, June 9, 2026.

• “Blue Owl Opens Abu Dhabi Hub in Sign of Gulf’s Continued Appeal.” Bloomberg, June 9, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia’s GDP reaches $1.31 trillion: NTP report.” Saudi Gazette, June 9, 2026.

• “UAE employers plan to cut staff, pushed by uncertainty.” Semafor, June 9, 2026.

• “Brookfield, GIP Defy War to Advance $7.5 Billion Kuwait Deal.” Bloomberg, June 9, 2026.

• “Kuwait’s Agility unit Tristar secures $770mln credit facility.” Zawya, June 9, 2026.

• “UAE company to fund $2bn New Botswana City.” AGBI, June 8, 2026.

• “UAE leads Gulf logistics shift as GCC rail project reaches 50% completion.” Khaleej Times, June 8, 2026.

• “Arab Energy Fund mandates banks for potential 5-year $500mln sukuk issuance.” Zawya, June 9, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia awards contract to expand freight railway network.” AGBI, June 9, 2026.

• “Chinese group bags $1.7bln EPC contract for 2.6GW Taweelah C IPP in Abu Dhabi.” Zawya, June 5, 2026.

• “Long-term view behind demand for Oman’s golden visa.” AGBI, June 9, 2026.

• “Dubai first-time home buyer programme generates $1.4 bln in property sales.” Zawya, June 9, 2026.

• “Jordan hires Dubai company to build logistics city.” AGBI, June 8, 2026.

• “Kuwait awards $992mln export crude oil infrastructure deal to L&T.” Zawya, June 8, 2026.

• “Alec unit wins $500m GCC construction contracts.” AGBI, June 8, 2026.

Updates

• “Most Gulf markets drop amid fresh Middle East tensions.” Reuters, June 8, 2026.

• “US approves Kuwait request to buy nearly $2 billion of counter-drone platforms.” Defense News, June 8, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia Offers Five Sports Clubs for Investment.” SPA, June 8, 2026.

• “Kuwait to Look at Expanding Global Oil Storage After Iran War.” Bloomberg, June 3, 2026.

• “US considers using Iranian assets to support reconstruction efforts in Gulf: Report.” Middle East Monitor, June 7, 2026.

• “Saudi government to spend $16 billion on cancelling parts of troubled Neom megacity project: report.” The Independent, June 8, 2026.

• “Bahrain’s Gulf Air Sees Travel Demand Recovering in the Summer.” Bloomberg, June 6, 2026.

• “Oman signs agreements worth $7.5 billion for new projects at special economic zone.” Reuters, June 8, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia Cuts July Crude Prices for Asia As Demand Slows.” WSJ, June 8, 2026.

• “PIFSS issues rules on refunds for revoked citizenship cases.” Arab Times, June 7, 2026.

• “Saudi Contractor MGC Postpones $799 Million Riyadh IPO.” Bloomberg, June 9, 2026.

• “Fifth Qatari-controlled LNG tanker exits Hormuz strait.” Reuters, June 9, 2026.

• “UAE Sells Bumper Gulf Oil Volumes for Loading Over Coming Months.” Bloomberg, June 8, 2026.

• “Oman Air looks to order jets, transform to profit.” Reuters, June 7, 2026.

In today’s issue, we highlight the public debate around the Abraham Accords, particularly after a recent renewed push by president Donald Trump’s. Other topics are highlighted afterward. Lastly, selected pieces are presented in the Nashra Picks.

If you find some value in our publication, we invite you to subscribe and share.

Public Debates

Beyond the Abraham Accords: How Gulf Commentators View Normalization, Palestine, and the Emerging Regional Order

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Updates

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Updates

• “Iran war latest: One killed and at least 63 injured in Iranian strike on Kuwait airport.” The National, June 3, 2026.

• “Foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan condemn Iranian attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain.” Arab News, June 3, 2026.

• “IMF says Saudi economy holding up during Iran war but growth could slow to 2% in 2026.” Zawya, June 3, 2026.

Go Deeper: “IMF Staff Completes 2026 Article IV Mission to Saudi Arabia.” IMF, June 3, 2026.

• “Riyadh launches flexible working hours for over 50 government entities.” Saudi Gazette, June 3, 2026.

• “Bahrain mandates USD 10-year bond; IPTs at around 7.5%.” Zawya, June 3, 2026.

• “Saudi Arabia continues expansion of Mecca with new development contracts.” Semafor, Jun 2, 2026.

• “China’s CRBC appointed main contractor for $350mln JW Marriott Al Marjan project.” Zawya, June 3, 2026.

• “Oman pours money into food security with $4.2B agriculture development.” Yahoo, June 3, 2026.

• “Bahrain Taps Dollar Bond Market Hours After Missile Attack.” Bloomberg, June 3, 2026.

• “Bahrain bets on French luxury deals.” Semafor, Jun 3, 2026.

• “UAE’s Strait of Hormuz Pipeline Bypass May Also Include Fuels.” Bloomberg, June 2, 2026.