Who Gets the Credit for Yemen’s Latest Battlefield Shift?

The latest military developments around Bab al-Mandab and Mocha have produced competing interpretations across the Gulf. Saudi commentators largely present the operations as a revival of the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the beginning of a broader campaign to change the balance of power against the Houthis. Emirati voices, by contrast, emphasize the battlefield role of the UAE-backed Southern Giants Brigades. Behind the disagreement over credit is a larger debate over the future of Yemen and the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla places the developments within the wider Saudi-Emirati relationship. His argument is that allies may disagree sharply without ceasing to be allies. He traces the relationship from close coordination between 2015 and 2019 to growing geopolitical and economic competition, particularly in Yemen, Sudan and regional leadership.

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As Arab and Gulf leaders gathered in New York during the UN General Assembly’s high-level week, Iran and the future of regional security dominated Gulf commentary. The debate extended beyond how to end the current confrontation to what should follow it: whether Iran represents a structural challenge requiring a different regional model, whether deterrence must precede diplomacy, or whether negotiations remain the only sustainable path despite deep skepticism toward the international system. Across these positions, the central question is how to prevent the region from returning to the same cycle of confrontation once the fighting ends.

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The latest Houthi advances in Yemen, particularly the group’s seizure of Mokha, Dhubab and Perim Island near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, have reopened a wider Gulf debate over Saudi Arabia’s security strategy and the effectiveness of the regional architecture built around it. At the same time, a drone attack targeted Saudi Arabia’s East–West oil pipeline, widening the discussion from Yemen to the vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure and maritime routes.

Gulf commentators have approached the escalation from several directions. Some question the effectiveness of Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and recently announced regional defense alliances; others argue that the crisis can no longer be treated primarily as a Saudi-Yemeni confrontation, but as part of a broader struggle involving Iran, the United States and Gulf security.

UAE academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla offers one of the sharpest critiques, focusing on the regional security arrangements that were supposed to respond to this kind of crisis. He argues that Saudi Arabia should “review its policies and reconsider its relations with the countries closest to it in its Gulf neighborhood,” rather than continuing to establish alliances whose practical value remains uncertain.

Abdulla asks what has become of the maritime defense alliance established in July to protect Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea, and whether there are concrete steps to activate it. He raises the same question about the Makkah alliance linking Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, established in August on the principle that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all three. For him, the present escalation is “the moment of truth” for alliances that received considerable attention when announced but now appear uncertain in their response.

Kuwaiti academic Ayed Al-Manna shifts the criticism toward the internationally recognized Yemeni government. He focuses on the withdrawal of government forces from Hays, Al-Khawkhah, Mokha, Dhubab and Perim Island and argues that the retreat requires investigation.

His central question is how exposed Houthi forces, despite facing air strikes, were able to overrun positions held by government units that were supposedly better equipped and more capable. Al-Manna therefore places attention on the weakness of the Yemeni forces upon which any Saudi strategy against the Houthis ultimately depends.

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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited France on August 23–24, 2026, meeting President Emmanuel Macron in a trip that marked another step in the expanding relationship between Riyadh and Paris. The visit coincided with the centenary of formal Saudi-French political relations and included the first meeting of the French-Saudi Strategic Partnership Council. The two governments presented a broad agenda spanning defense, investment, energy, artificial intelligence, culture, and entertainment, while also discussing regional security and the future of the Middle East.

Yet commentary on the visit suggests that its significance lies less in any single agreement than in the different transformations it appears to represent. For some, France offers Riyadh another pillar in an increasingly diversified foreign policy. For others, the relationship is becoming a mechanism for building the industries envisioned under Vision 2030. Still others focused on culture, gaming, and Saudi Arabia’s growing effort to project itself internationally through new forms of soft power. Taken together, these readings present the visit not simply as another episode in Saudi-French diplomacy, but as a reflection of how Saudi Arabia increasingly defines its place abroad.

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A week after the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan triggered debate over whether new security arrangements outside the Gulf Cooperation Council might strengthen or weaken Gulf cohesion, Gulf commentary has moved toward a broader question: what does the agreement say about the changing model of regional security? For some, the pact exposes limitations in existing Gulf and Arab collective-security institutions. For others, it represents a transition from dependence on external protection toward regional deterrence and strategic autonomy. A third discussion concerns whether the pact could eventually expand and connect more directly with the GCC.

Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla offers one of the more explicitly political interpretations, describing the agreement as an “Islamic alliance.” He points particularly to its collective-defense provision, under which an attack against one member is considered an attack against all three. Abdulla has also noted what he considers the disproportionately enthusiastic response of the Muslim Brotherhood, including statements by its leaders and commentary across its media platforms. His intervention raises the question of whether an agreement among three major Muslim states could acquire an Islamic political identity beyond its immediate defense provisions.

Emirati writer Mohammed Alhammadi approaches the agreement primarily through the shortcomings of existing Gulf and Arab collective security. His central question is why Gulf states, despite possessing advanced militaries and substantial defense resources, continue to seek additional security arrangements outside their immediate regional institutions. In his view, the recent U.S.-Israeli war with Iran demonstrated that possessing sophisticated weapons is not the same as possessing collective deterrence. Regional governments condemned attacks against states in the region, he argues, but did not translate that position into a unified security response.

Alhammadi does not oppose partnerships with outside powers, which can provide technology, intelligence, training, and military capabilities. But he distinguishes between partnerships that reinforce an existing regional system and those that compensate for its weaknesses. External partnerships are useful when they “add to an existing system, not when they compensate for its absence.” When a Gulf state seeks additional defense guarantees, he argues, the question is not only what it found among new partners, but “what it lacked in the Gulf home.” The danger is that reliance on external arrangements could expose continuing weaknesses in Gulf and Arab collective-security institutions.

Qatari academic Khalid Al-Jaber sees the Makkah Agreement as part of a possible transition from “imported security,” based heavily on external guarantees, toward greater regional responsibility for deterrence. He argues that changing U.S. priorities have exposed the limits of relying on Washington as the region’s principal security guarantor, while the Arab world has struggled to transform its own resources into collective power. The pact could therefore shift the relationship with outside powers from “strategic dependence” toward “strategic partnership.”

For Al-Jaber, however, its significance depends on implementation. If the agreement develops credible mechanisms for collective defense and protection of critical infrastructure, it could become the “nucleus of an Arab security system”; otherwise, it risks becoming another symbolic regional agreement.

Saudi diplomat and GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Negotiation Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg offers a complementary interpretation. He describes the agreement as evidence of movement toward “regional strategic autonomy,” while emphasizing that it should augment rather than replace existing arrangements. The pact combines diplomacy, defense, and deterrence, with its collective-defense provision intended primarily to discourage aggression.

Aluwaisheg explicitly rejects interpreting the agreement as a replacement for either the U.S.-led security order or the GCC’s military framework. Instead, it can operate alongside them through exercises, intelligence sharing, logistical cooperation, training, defense industries, and maritime security. The alliance is also expected to establish a secretariat in Saudi Arabia. In this reading, the pact represents defense burden-sharing and diversification rather than a choice between regional autonomy and existing international partnerships.

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“If, God forbid, those rabid beasts launch an attack on Saudi Arabia, will we see the Turkish and Pakistani air forces bombing Yemen, Iraq, and Tehran?”

With this question, Kuwaiti former politician and diplomat Fuad Al-Hashim captured the skepticism surrounding the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The agreement, which establishes the principle that an attack on one of the three countries constitutes an attack on all, has triggered a wider Gulf debate over what it means for the future of regional security.

Some Gulf commentators fear that building a new regional defense arrangement outside the Gulf Cooperation Council could further weaken Gulf security cooperation. Others see precisely the opposite: the pact could give the GCC additional strategic depth, diversify Gulf security partnerships, and perhaps become the nucleus of a broader regional defense system.

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Kuwait’s approval of a defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan prompted debate among Gulf commentators over its strategic significance. While support for closer military cooperation was widespread, disagreement centered on whether the agreement should remain a limited defense arrangement or signal a broader shift in the Gulf’s regional security strategy.

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The Houthis’ renewed threats against Saudi Arabia and their declared willingness to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait have revived an old Gulf question: who can realistically restore stability in Yemen? While Gulf commentators broadly agree that the Houthis represent a serious security challenge and that Iranian influence has expanded through the movement, they differ sharply on the most effective response. Some argue that backing Yemen’s internationally recognized government has failed and that Gulf states—particularly Saudi Arabia—should instead deepen their support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Others insist that abandoning the legitimate state would only deepen Yemen’s fragmentation and strengthen Iran’s long-term position. A third group places Yemen within a much broader geopolitical struggle, arguing that Bab al-Mandab can no longer be understood separately from Hormuz or the wider competition over global maritime routes.

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The U.S.–Iran war has reignited one of the Gulf’s most consequential strategic debates: what role will the United States play in the Middle East after the conflict? While the military confrontation ended without fundamentally reshaping the regional balance of power, it exposed growing uncertainty across Gulf capitals regarding Washington’s long-term strategic commitment. The central question is no longer whether the United States can defeat Iran militarily, but whether it intends to remain the Gulf’s primary security guarantor or gradually redefine its regional role. Equally important is whether future understandings between Washington and Tehran could leave Iran with greater geopolitical influence despite its military setbacks. Against this backdrop, Gulf commentators offer sharply different interpretations of America’s future posture, the durability of regional deterrence, and the strategic consequences of the postwar order.

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